Achieving Positive Returns Amid Extreme Volatility: Colin Gloeckler’s Portfolio Delivers Over 12% Interim Gains

By the summer of 2020, following the severe shocks of the spring, U.S. financial markets were gradually stabilizing from a state of disorder. The Federal Reserve had fully deployed unconventional liquidity tools, rapidly lowered policy rates to near zero, and continued to expand asset purchases. Market pricing shifted from fundamentals toward policy and liquidity as the dominant drivers. In this environment, asset prices recovered significantly faster than the pace of the real economy, while cross-asset divergence intensified. Volatility did not disappear—it persisted, but in higher-frequency and more complex forms.

During this phase, the core objective of portfolio management was not to maximize rebound magnitude, but to generate returns that were sustainable and replicable under highly asymmetric market conditions. For a framework centered on multi-asset allocation, the focus was on how to prevent structural imbalances in the portfolio when markets were primarily driven by liquidity, thereby avoiding amplified drawdown risk. This approach maintained the disciplined execution logic established during the crisis earlier in the year, substituting systematic allocation for reactive, emotion-driven trading.

In execution, the portfolio continued to rely on a multi-asset balanced structure, while redefining the functional roles of individual assets in the current environment. High-quality bonds maintained their role as risk buffers and defensive positions, providing hedging capacity during rapid shifts in sentiment and heightened tail risks. Equity exposure was tilted toward areas that benefited from a low-rate environment and featured stronger balance sheets, rather than being fully allocated to highly leveraged or high-volatility segments. This allocation approach allowed the portfolio to participate in the market recovery while avoiding overexposure to any single scenario.

Risk management also emphasized enhanced dynamic adjustment mechanisms. As market sentiment shifted more rapidly, the portfolio increased the frequency of rebalancing across both weights and risk exposures, with the primary goal of keeping overall volatility within a manageable range. In the market conditions of 2020, a static “buy-and-hold” approach was significantly less effective; strategies lacking rebalancing and risk-control triggers could quickly accumulate and expose structural risk. Managing timing and risk mechanisms became critical to maintaining portfolio stability.

Looking at interim results, as of August 2020, the portfolio delivered approximately 12.4% positive returns after experiencing the severe shocks earlier in the year. This performance did not result from precise market timing, but from disciplined execution of the allocation framework across varying market states. Importantly, while achieving these returns, overall portfolio volatility and drawdowns remained within relatively controlled levels, without sacrificing risk structure for the sake of performance.

In the market environment at the time, attention was largely focused on short-term rebounds and thematic trades, whereas portfolio management prioritized mid- to long-term structure and risk constraints. Policy-driven asset price increases had a tangible foundation, but liquidity-driven rallies are inherently fragile, requiring ongoing vigilance. Maintaining defensive assets and controlling concentration remained central to the portfolio’s allocation discipline.

Looking back from August 2020, this period of positive interim returns illustrates the effectiveness of the strategy framework under extreme market conditions, rather than success in directional market calls. Through multi-asset allocation, dynamic risk management, and prudent assessment of liquidity conditions, the portfolio preserved a controllable risk structure and stable operational path amid high volatility. This approach—anchored in risk control and aimed at sustainable returns—reflects the disciplined, risk-aware practices central to U.S. institutional investing in challenging market environments.